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Monday, October 8, 2007

Brazil Weather in Key Coffee regions

The lack of rain in the Brazilian coffee regions is worrying Brazilian coffee growers. In South of Minas Gerais, for example, in August never rained. Every day without rain make a tough situation even tougher. Plants situated below 900 metros were unusually flowering in August as consequence of rainy months of June and July and are now badly suffering for the lack of rain. Plants that usually flower in Sept-Oct-November are suffering a significant water deficit. Production potential of 2008/2009 crop is at stake although it is early to assess size of the potential loss. If rains finally arrive, 2008/2009 crop can still be a good harvesting season but it will not turn out to be a record crop season as initially expected. In this situation the market is closely following weather conditions in Brazil and Arabica coffee prices are touching 9 years high levels both in San Paulo and NY.

Monday Oct 8, 2007 bulletin: weak and localised rain areas in North of Paraná and São Paulo State. Significant rain able to cover the coffee water deficit is not expected . In Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo weather is expected to remain dry till Oct 14. Weather forecast are changing day after day and need to be continuously monitored. Forecasting models expect significant rain in the Coffee producing regions from October 18.

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